RUSSIA’S HYBRID WARFARE TACTICS TARGET THE BALTICS
On May 9, 2024, a fire broke out at an IKEA warehouse in Vilnius, Lithuania (Lrytas, May 20, 2024). Subsequent investigations revealed that the arson was orchestrated by Russia’s military intelligence agency, the Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (GRU), and that the suspects were also planning similar attacks in Latvia (LRT, March 17).
The Lithuanian Prosecutor General’s Office classified the incident as an act of terrorism aimed at intimidating the societies of Lithuania and pressuring them to reduce support for Ukraine (LRT, March 17).
Russia’s hybrid warfare strategy extends beyond its war against Ukraine as it also targets other European frontline states through influence operations, election interference, and intimidation.
The Baltic States—Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania—are targeted by Russian hybrid tactics as a daily reality and direct challenge to their sovereignty.
Historically, Moscow has used political, economic, energy, and cyber tactics to undermine the Baltics.
Recent efforts, however, are markedly more aggressive, particularly as they involve military pressure.
Understanding the origins of Russia’s hybrid strategy is crucial to recognizing its evolving influence in the region.
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