It was strange for an American President famous for denouncing “Fake News” to believe the claim of a Russian President famous for providing almost nothing but Fake News: Trump Says of Alleged Ukraine Attack on Putin: ‘I Was Very Angry About It’.
Especially when: Russia Declines To Provide Proof Of Alleged Drone Attack On Putin’s Home, Says Will ‘Toughen’ Negotiating Stance.
That’s because no evidence can be found that the attack overnight Sunday-Monday (12/29) ever took place beyond the Kremlin’s own claims.
Ukrainian officials led by President Volodymyr Zelensky have widely rubbished Russian reports that Putin’s secluded and heavily guarded residential complex near the Novgorod region village of Valdai was ever targeted. Moreover, they accused the Kremlin of inventing the attack as a pretext for Russia to back out of participation in ongoing peace discussions.
There is compelling and extensive evidence that Ukraine had conducted extensive and often successful drone strikes against targets elsewhere in Russia or in Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory that night, but no proof or even potentially credible evidence that Putin’s home had ever come under attack.
Russia’s claims
The first reports of the alleged strike against Putin’s residence were made public by the Russian Ministry of Defense at 9:30 p.m. Moscow time on Monday (12/29), and were quickly repeated across major Russian state-controlled media.
According to that official statement, waves of Ukrainian strike drones escorted by decoys were all shot down by local defenses in battles taking place late on Sunday and into Monday morning.
The Russian defense ministry later upgraded its kill claims to 41 aircraft participating in the alleged Putin residence attacks, of which 23 were purportedly destroyed between 7 a.m. and 9 a.m. Moscow time on Monday.
Asked by Moscow reporters on Tuesday what proof the Kremlin had that Putin’s residence was actually attacked, Putin spokesman Dmitry Peskov responded:
“I don’t think that there should be any evidence [needed at all] if such a massive drone raid is carried out, which was neutralized thanks to the clear work of air defense. As for the debris [from drones purportedly shot down,] I can’t say anything about that, that’s more a topic for our military. We see that Zelensky himself is trying to deny it, and many Western media, making fun of the Kyiv regime, are starting to spread the topic that, they say, this was not the case. These are insane statements.”
Peskov declined to tell reporters whether or not Putin was at home during the alleged drone attack. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said the attack absolutely took place and that Russia would retaliate “and not with diplomacy.”
What the evidence shows
In past months and years, Ukrainian drone raids deep into Russian Federation territory, and aircraft breaches of Russian air space, have been widely reported on air defense and news networks both in Russia and Ukraine. Those sources did not spot drones where the Kremlin said they were.
A review of breaking news on major Novgorod news platforms for reports of Ukrainian drones in the air or local air defenses engaging targets found no original reports of incoming aircraft or ground fire. The platforms included, among others, Zhizn’ v Nizhnem, Novosti Velikogo Novgoroda, Novosti Nizhnego Novgoroda, NewNN and Rus’ Novogorodskaya.
The independent Russian news platforms Astra and Sota, both typically competing to be the media fastest reporting accurate and verified news from inside Russia, reported no air battles or even suspected drone activity above Novgorod region at the time the Russian defense ministry claimed a major Ukrainian strike against Putin’s residence had taken place.
Novgorod’s widest-read news platform, the state-sanctioned 53news.ru, limited its coverage of the alleged Ukrainian strikes on the Putin residence to verbatim reprints of the defense ministry announcement. The dedicated local civil emergency Telegram channel ChP 53 Velikiy Novgorod – an information platform for regional first responders – had by midday on Tuesday made no mention of drone or air defense activity anywhere in the region.
Top overnight Novgorod news ran the gamut from automobile accidents to a reported escape of a felon from a local prison, to corruption charges vs. regional officials, road repairs and traffic accidents. New Year’s preparation and celebration activities dominated most content.
Ukrainian air warning networks overnight Sunday-Monday reported dozens of long-range drones entering Russian air space into Russia’s western Belgorod region, into Russia’s south-western Krasnodar region, and into Ukrainian territory controlled by Russia. Those platforms recorded no strikes heading towards Novorogod region, hundreds of kilometers deeper inside Russia.
Russian air watch and news platforms thoroughly documented a Ukrainian drone swarm attacking a rail sorting station near the city of Krasnodar and reportedly shooting down some incoming aircraft. According to local news reports, two civilians were injured and three homes were damaged as police and fire fighters responded to the scene.
Krasnodar social media reported explosions in the vicinity of the sorting station but there was no official confirmation. Russian censorship law bans making public information of actual damage to state property resulting from Ukrainian drone strikes.
A Monday official statement by Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces (USF) took credit for what it called a series of highly successful attacks against buildings geo-located to the Russian-occupied village of Makiika, a military pontoon bridge and Russian military equipment near the village of Nikonorivka, and a military material storage site near the city of Anttrasit.
USF-published video seemingly documented hits and explosions in the vicinity of Russian drone launch teams and a military repair unit, including drone impacts against soldiers. Other USF video and official comment documented a claimed wave of Ukrainian drone strikes hitting and destroying Russian air defense radars, command vehicles and missile launchers around the city of Chernomorsk in occupied Crimea.
International reaction to Russia’s claims
Kremlin supporters abroad on Tuesday weighed in with comment condemning Kyiv and taking Moscow claims about the “attack” at face value.
Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif strongly condemned Kyiv in a Tuesday “X” post, calling the supposed raid against Putin’s home a “serious threat to peace, security and stability.”
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued an official statement strongly condemning the “attempt to target” Putin’s residence as “deplorable” and said the UAE stands in solidarity with Russia and President Putin.
India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi told reporters he was “deeply concerned” by the reported escalation and said it might create “further instability.”
Putin’s heavily defended palatial complex
Located on a forested lake shore about 350 kilometers northwest of Moscow adjacent to a national park, President Putin’s Valdai spa complex boasts a pool, sauna, steam room, golf course, go-cart track, helicopter pad, rail station, dedicated armored train and a main palace about 1,200 meters square.
Air defenses – which have continually been upgraded since 2022 – Include, according to open sources, at least 12 Pantsir-S1 short-to-medium-range air defense systems, additional air defense radars, and at least one S-400 long-range air defense system, making air space above the Valdai property the most heavily-defended in Russia after the Kremlin.
There are no local news reports that any of this air defense weaponry was fired at the time of the alleged attack. Because there never was such an attack at all.
Stefan Korshak is from Houston, Texas, is a graduate of Yale University, and is a defense correspondent for a number of news outlets.
